Elo Ratings in Club Football — RB Leipzig Club Signings Profile (2015–2020)
In my most recent football (soccer) data analysis article, I proposed that Elo Ratings and Football (Soccer) Power Rankings could be used in a different way than just ranking clubs, that is, differently than how the analytics community has previously used the data. Instead, Elo Ratings provide data conducive to developing “transfer profiles” of professional football clubs. These transfer profiles are reverse-engineered reports based on a club’s incoming or outgoing players in a particular transfer window that put into numbers what takes a lot of words to explain. These transfer profiles show the bigger picture of some scouting patterns, or signing patterns at least, and can also demonstrate connections with other clubs, agents, and even more when applied over 3–5 transfer windows, for the duration of a manager’s tenure, a director of football’s career, etc.
This article will profile the signings that took place during the meteoric rise of German club RB Leipzig, tracking their progress from the German 2nd Bundesliga in 2015 to their recent top 3 performances amongst German heavyweights in the Bundesliga.
I recognize the value that accurate data can bring to the table everyday as a football writer and law school graduate in the U.S. Whether to help make sense of a team’s bad performance, how to predict the likelihood of success in the midst of complex litigation, or analyzing patterns in club football signings, data is a tool that helps us see the world a little more clearly. It helps embolden or erase connections that we believe exist based on our visual perception and sometimes inaccurate firsthand observations.
In developing my data-based analytical concept, I have categorized two types of profiles that make up the big picture “Transfer Profile.” The first, which will be the focus of this article, will be called a “Signings Profile.” This demonstrates the types of clubs that “Club X” signs players from, the ratings of those clubs, and the average level of a club that a player could be expected to be signed from. The second part of the Transfer Profile is the “Departures Profile.” This shows the types of clubs that “Club Y” sends players to when they are no longer needed or the club cannot hold onto them. This article explains the steps that the average reader can take to create their own “Signings Profiles” with “Net Elo” plus some relevant historical context as part of overall club football transfer profiles. Through these profiles, fans and football professionals alike can analyze their favorite club(s) by using the metrics that I have developed called Net Elo, Average Net Elo, and Departure Elo ratings.
Net Elo can be described as: the difference in the Elo rating of Team X — Team Y. Examples of this can be found in my introductory article, here, with plenty more to visualize below. While we know that top clubs scout and filter through hundreds if not thousands of players a year thanks to modern technology and ever-increasing amounts of money spent on databases, independent scouts, and in-house analytics teams, assigning a quantifiable ranking to where clubs sign from might reveal identifiable patterns and trends over a few seasons. Understanding these patterns can help improve scouting for smaller and larger clubs, at the very least, through the identification of consistent feeder clubs with quality players that might otherwise be overlooked.
There are many factors that affect a club’s consistent player development in churning out quality players. Additionally, there are many circumstances that affect a club’s capability to sign players, one of the most recent and far-reaching examples being a global pandemic. Still, it is my view that past behavior, failure, or success is the best predictor of future behavior, failure, or success. Looking at past activity gives us an idea of what to expect in the future and where we should focus our attention to save time and money.
More relevant to this article is the recent growth of RB Leipzig. The club was founded in 2009 and began their journey in one of the lowest possible divisions in German football. Within the decade that would follow, the club would win their way up from the German Fifth Tier, earning promotions in all but one season. The club just missed out on promotion from the 2nd Bundesliga to the first division in 2015 only to make it a year later in stunning fashion. Since making their Bundesliga debut in 2016, RB Leipzig has not finished lower than 6th place and finished at an average between 3rd and 4th place all four years thus far. Not to mention, the Europa League Quarter-Final appearance and loss to Marseille in 2018, the DFB-Pokal Final appearance but ultimate loss to Bayern Munich in 2019, and the club’s ascension to the UEFA Champions League Semi-Final, where they again lost, this time to French mega-club Paris Saint-Germain in 2020.
Below you will find the Signings Profile of RB Leipzig from Summer 2015 to Summer 2020, along with my personal analysis for each window, and a summary of the data with helpful graphics following the analysis.
Signings Profile — 2015/16
This window is the last season RB Leipzig spent in the 2nd Bundesliga, when they earned their promotion to the German first division with an overall second place finish. This window is particularly unique when compared to subsequent years as it is the last big push the club made to earn their promotion. Being a second division club, their scouting network was much more closed compared to how it is now. Intuitively, as a team improves in their division, their financial resources increase, their media coverage increases, and the quality of their competition increases. Because of this, player scouting must improve and the quality of players must improve to a top-tier professional level.
As a reminder, a more negative Net Elo value means a player was signed from a much better club. A higher positive Net Elo value means that the player was signed from a much worse club. In this window, we see RB Leipzig signed only one of seven players from a worse club. FC St. Pauli was just barely worse at the time of the transfer to RB Leipzig. For this set, Skopintsev is excluded because the reserve team does not have a rating on Clubelo.com. Including the former Zenit II player would certainly bring all of the averages up but could detract from the fact (purely looking at the averages) that the rest of the data suggests signings from better clubs. The average Net Elo was -116, meaning the average club that RB Leipzig signed from was 116 Elo points better. In this case, that average club would be more than 125 places higher in the ClubElo.com European club football standings.
With Ralf Rangnick’s first season as manager, the Selke signing from Bremen, along with the multiple Red Bull Salzburg (partner/affiliate) signings, are the highest Net Elo signings in this window as we begin to observe a trend for future signings. On a separate note, Orban, Halstenberg, Ilsanker, and Selke had more than 1,900 minutes each during this season as some of the more immediately integrated signings.
Last, looking at the Average Departure Elo number, 1588.85, we can see the average club that RB Leipzig scouted from in this season. Clubs with a close rating during this timeframe include Bournemouth, Montpellier, Bastia, Numancia, and Newcastle. None of these clubs stand out as being some of the absolute best in the world, but in RB Leipzig’s promotion push, quality second division club players and players from lower-ranked first division European clubs contributed to their success.
Signings Profile — 2016/17
Looking at the above charts, we immediately see another constant: four players signed from affiliate club Red Bull Salzburg, who has slightly improved in their Elo rating in this timeframe. Fans of the club and of world football currently will immediately recognize three or four names: Naby Keita, Timo Werner, Dayot Upamecano, and Bernardo (for the Brighton and Premier League fans). We also see the beginning of a new trend- signing players from the RB Leipzig U19 and reserve teams. Additionally, there was only one signing from outside of Germany or from RB Salzburg.
RB Leipzig had an almost 100 point positive jump in their Elo rating between the two seasons as they began their first year in the German first division. This moved the club’s rank among other European clubs from #231 to #149. In this window RB Leipzig signed players from clubs that were on average slightly better than them. The Papadopoulos signing from Leverkusen was the marquee signing looking purely at Elo, while the second-highest amount spent during this window.
The average Net Elo was -61.75, meaning the average club that RB Leipzig signed from was just about 62 Elo points better. In this case, that average club would be about 47 places higher in the Elo European club football standings; this is a less noticeable difference than last season’s signings. Still, Montpellier ranked as one of the average clubs RB Leipzig would sign from. Additionally, higher-ranked 2nd division Spanish clubs like Real Zaragoza and Gimnastic Tarragona were at a similar level, along with Belgian club Gent. This is somewhat surprising considering the fact that RB Leipzig finished in second place in their debut Bundesliga season.
RB Leipzig signed players that were under the radar then but have turned into players that were or are likely going to be signed to some of the best clubs in the world very soon. Players like Keita, who recently signed to Liverpool, Werner, who just signed for Chelsea, and Upamecano, who is on the radar of many of the best European clubs, were signed in this window.
Keita and Werner immediately settled in under the newly appointed Ralph Hasenhüttl, earning more than 2,400 minutes each throughout the season. Bernardo finished with more than 1,800 minutes while Upamecano and Burke finished with just above 600. The “big money” signing of the window, Papadopoulos played less than 30 minutes for RB Leipzig throughout the season. As demonstrated in the chart above at the end of the previous section, RB Leipzig finished this season in 2nd place. New signings Keita, Werner, and Bernardo all played key parts in their success.
Signings Profile — 2017/18
This window is the second consecutive season that RB Leipzig spent in the Bundesliga, following an astounding overall 2nd place finish. This window continues the upward trend in Average Departure Elo, the average Elo rating of every departing club, with an increase of about 45 points. Having made a name for themselves after their first season, there was clearly more appeal to attract players from other top leagues around Europe.
In this window, we see RB Leipzig signed from an array of European countries and clubs. The signings from much better ranked clubs in this window include just Augustin from PSG and Lookman from Everton. Other signings from similarly ranked clubs include Kampl from Leverkusen and Laimer from Red Bull Salzburg, who surprisingly have a lower Elo rating than RB Leipzig. Signings from worse clubs included Bruma, Mvogo, and Konaté. The exclusion of Stuttgart’s U19 team from the Clubelo.com rating system makes the Net Elo lower than it would have been otherwise.
The average Net Elo in this window was +55.57, meaning this window is the first in my specified timeframe with a positive Net Elo value. In this case, the average club that RB Leipzig could likely sign a player from is 55.57 points lower in the Elo ratings. RB Leipzig sat around #39 in the Clubelo.com ranking system and a likely club to sign from could include Real Betis, West Ham, Torino, or Getafe, more solid mid to lower-level first division teams in Spain, Italy, and England.
In Hasenhüttl’s second and final season as manager, he incorporated Kampl, Bruma, and Augustin well, with all of them earning more than 2,000 minutes each. From the previous season, Upamecano and Werner became key pieces. Laimer at 20 years old and Konaté at just 18 each earned more than 1,500 minutes. Another emerging pattern includes loaning and/or being patient with the incorporation of former RB Leipzig U19/II players in the season in which they are signed. Supplementing the squad with 5–7 outside signings a season plus 4 more from youth teams or Red Bull Salzburg affiliate signings seems to be another pattern. Immediately incorporating many of the players from Red Bull Salzburg seems to be part of the squad planning process although it could be that the Austrian Bundesliga lags the German league in skill level and these signings are the crème de la crème of the Austrian league; these players are moved on for new challenges and higher professional heights.
Signings Profile — 2018/19
This window is the third consecutive season RB Leipzig spent in the Bundesliga, following a 6th place finish that saw Ralf Rangnick take the reigns again while Hasenhüttl was relieved of his post. This window saw a dip in the trend in Average Departure Elo, the average Elo rating of every departing club, with a decrease of about 43 points. RB Leipzig shifted back to scouting roughly from the same level clubs as two seasons ago. Further, RB Leipzig’s Elo Rating dropped by 19 points (not a huge drop, by any means) following their 6th place finish.
Looking at the transfers above, we see RB Leipzig signed from a variety of countries and clubs with just three having a Clubelo.com rating. There was only one signing from a better club in this window, the Haidara signing from Red Bull Salzburg. The exclusion of NY Red Bulls, the Arsenal U23 squad and River Plate from Clubelo.com likely gives the average a lower value than it would have had if they were included in the calculations.
The average Net Elo in this window was +80, meaning this window is the second consecutive in my specified timeframe with a positive Net Elo value. In this case, the average club that RB Leipzig could likely sign a player from is 80 points lower in the Elo ratings. RB Leipzig sat around #50 in the Clubelo.com ranking system and a likely club to sign from could include clubs like Mainz, Wolfsburg, or Nice. Again, same as last season, these were mid to lower level clubs in top European leagues. Additionally, they have signed five Red Bull affiliate players during this window, whether from their own academy to professional contracts or from Red Bull Salzburg or NY Red Bulls. The Saracchi and Adams signings were the first players in my chosen timeframe who were signed from an American club. One other characteristic of this window is the fact that the oldest players signed were three at just 20 years old.
In this season, Cunha and Mukiele each featured for more than 1,900 minutes. From the previous season’s signings, Konaté and Kampl became key pieces. Saracchi and Bruma earned around 1,400 minutes while the young U.S. international Tyler Adams made 12 appearances. This window saw the makeup of signings tilt to favor internal/Red Bull affiliate acquisitions over outside signings for the first time in my specified timeframe. Rangnick’s squad would finish 3rd in the Bundesliga with a Goal Differential of +34, their highest since entering the German top flight to that point.
Signings Profile — 2019/20
The above window is now the fourth consecutive season RB Leipzig spent in the Bundesliga, following a 2nd place finish that saw Ralf Rangnick move to take over as Head of International Relations and Scouting at RB Bragantino in Brazil to be replaced by Julian Naglesmann as head coach.
Caveat: You read that last sentence right. RB Bragantino is but one affiliate in the overall Red Bull sports industry. In total there is: RB Leipzig, Red Bull Salzburg, Red Bull Bragantino (recently promoted to the Brazilian Série A), NY Red Bulls in the U.S. playing in MLS, and FC Liefering in the Austrian 2nd Division.
This window saw a massive jump upward in Average Departure Elo, the average Elo rating of every departing club, with an increase of about 215 points, scouting players from clubs at an unprecedented high level. Further, RB Leipzig’s Elo Rating increased by about 118–120 points to 1807, starting the season at #16 in Europe.
Looking at the transfers above, we see RB Leipzig signed from a variety of countries and clubs with just six this time having a Clubelo.com rating. There was only one signing from a better club in this window, the Haidara signing from Red Bull Salzburg. The exclusion of Palmeiras B from Clubelo.com gives the average a lower value than it would have had if they were included in the calculations but since this is one signing it should not have a huge impact on the averages, especially with the Angeliño signing keeping things balanced on the negative end.
The average Net Elo in this window was -15.67, meaning this window is the first to dip downward toward a negative Net Elo value after two seasons trending positive. In this case, the average club that RB Leipzig could likely sign a player from is 15–16 points higher in the Elo ratings, so just slightly better. As mentioned above, RB Leipzig sat around #16 in the Clubelo.com ranking system and a likely club to sign from could include clubs like Porto or Paris Saint-Germain. Much different than all seasons previously, these clubs are normally in the top 2 or 3 in their domestic league and normally do well in European competitions.
Additionally, RB Leipzig signed seven Red Bull affiliate players during this window, whether from their own academy to professional contracts or from Red Bull Salzburg. The Palmeiras B signing was just the third player in my chosen timeframe who was signed from an American club, although this time for a second consecutive season. Angeliño signing from Manchester City and Ethan Ampadu signing from Chelsea brought the average Net Elo lower and were offset by Olmo signing from the Croatian club Dinamo Zagreb and Schick signing from AS Roma.
In this recent coronavirus-interrupted and resumed-season, new signing Nkunku featured for more than 2,500 minutes, while newcomers Schick and Angeliño each earned more than 1,500 minutes each. This window saw the makeup of signings tilt even further to favor internal/Red Bull affiliate acquisitions over outside signings for the second consecutive time in my specified timeframe. Nagelsmann’s squad would finish 2nd in the Bundesliga with a Goal Differential of +44, 10 better than their previous highest. The club would also reach new heights in the UEFA Champions League with a Semi-Final loss to Paris Saint-Germain.
Signings Profile — 2020/21
In the last and ongoing transfer window, as RB Leipzig hope to sustain both their recent domestic and continental success, there are just five signings to analyze. Three of the five come from within the Red Bull affiliate network and the other two both come from within Europe with calculable Elo ratings.
The Average and Total Net Elo numbers for this window are particularly high due to two reasons: 1. RB Leipzig is presently rated close to the top 10 clubs in Europe so there are very few clubs that could be ranked higher that they would sign from and 2. The clubs they have signed from so far (with plenty of time left in the window) are not ranked very close to them. The average Net Elo during this window is the highest it has been in all of the seasons analyzed in this article at +211.33.
Prediction and Thoughts Going Forward: As a prediction for the rest of the window, it is hard to imagine the average Net Elo moving drastically lower with a signing or signings from better clubs due to Leipzig’s high position. I envision them doing what they have done continuously over the last 5 years; they will strengthen the squad overall through the addition of probably one or two more players from top European leagues (more likely Germany but others, too) with one or two players maybe coming in from RB Leipzig U19 to loan out for minutes at a more competitive level or Red Bull Salzburg in the event of an injury.
It seems that Hee-chan Hwang is the closest like-for-like addition to replace Timo Werner. Just because they had a lot of money coming in does not signal big spending based on RB Leipzig’s past signings. Josep Martinez will likely fill in as back-up Goalkeeper for the extremely consistent Gulácsi while Mvogo will hope to earn more minutes on loan at PSV Eindhoven. Henrichs will add some depth at right back and ideally give Mukiele a break or allow him to push higher up the field in some formations depending on Naglesmann’s tactics. Leipzig’s left defensive half looked balanced with Klostermann, Halstenberg, and Angeliño so I do not imagine anyone else coming in there. Konaté has the appearance and statistics of a gifted young center defender if he can fix his recurring hip injuries. Otherwise, Upamecano has been linked with a handful of clubs over this summer but recently signed an extension that should keep him in Germany for another year at least and solidify the Leipzig back line. The center of Leipzig’s defense looks set. Should RB Leipzig need more help on the attacking front, Daka, Koïta, and Szoboszlai all look to be very promising players currently in Salzburg and would fit the 20.5 average age of signings.
Conclusion
Summarizing the data above, the following charts help to visualize the data over the five year timeframe.
This profiling concept is just one piece of the puzzle that can be used by fans and football professionals as they attempt to comprehend complex global scouting networks and the evolving football transfer market. After such a promising season in Germany and Europe, RB Leipzig make a perfect first “case study” and application of my Net Elo, Average Net Elo, and Departure Elo metrics. The obviousness of their affiliate clubs makes some of the reverse-engineering a bit easier and some of the patterns more clear. I look forward to applying my metrics to even more clubs like Borussia Dortmund and others suggested by readers. I also encourage readers to go on their own and apply the metrics I have developed for their own favorite club(s).
Thank you for reading. Please feel free to check out my analysis of various players like Nordi Mukiele and Eduardo Camavinga as well as my article series on modern football player transfers. I am also open to feedback, comments, and conversations of all sorts on twitter: @rschmidtke8.
